Asia-Pacific Fleet and MRO Market will be Biggest
from Air Transport World: The Asia-Pacific region will surpass others in airliner fleet size and MRO market value in a decade, attendees at the Aviation Week Network MRO Asia-Pacific conference in Singapore were told Tuesday.
Chris Doan, a Cavok VP, forecast that the Asia-Pacific fleet will stand at 11,687 aircraft in 2025, far surpassing 8,142 aircraft in North America and 8,096 in Europe. Asia-Pacific’s MRO market will have a value of $34.8 billion in 2025, compared to $21.3 billion in North America and $24.9 billion in Europe.
To put these regions in perspective, Cavok’s forecast pegged the global MRO market value at $67.1 billion in 2015 and $100.4 billion in 2025.
Today’s Asia-Pacific fleet includes 6,452 aircraft and an MRO market valued at $18.3 billion.
Doan noted that only a small percentage of today’s fleet of 6,452 aircraft in Asia-Pacific will retire, compared to the global average of 43% over the next decade.
“The mature North America and Western European markets will continue to undergo significant re-fleeting efforts during the next 10 years,” he said, while there are expected to be only 1,300 aircraft retirements in the Asia-Pacific region and 6,500 deliveries.
Of the 44 countries defined in Cavok’s Asia-Pacific region, just 10 represent 85% of the fleet, Doan said, with China having 40%, or 2,467 aircraft. Even though China will be a key growth driver for the region, he said the country’s infrastructure will have a hard time keeping up with growth. Coupled with China’s rising labor cost, potential MRO work could spill over to other countries, he said.
Of the 44 countries defined in Cavok’s Asia-Pacific region, just 10 represent 85% of the fleet, Doan said, with China having 40%, or 2,467 aircraft. Even though China will be a key growth driver for the region, he said the country’s infrastructure will have a hard time keeping up with growth. Coupled with China’s rising labor cost, potential MRO work could spill over to other countries, he said.
In contrast, continued investments in capabilities and skilled labor in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore should help these countries, with a combined MRO market value of $2.4 billion, remain competitive, Doan said.
In another presentation, ICF International VP David Stewart noted that even though there is a lot of focus on how the large numbers of new aircraft deliveries over the next decade would affect the MRO market, there would still be a very big market for the existing aircraft. The bulk of new-generation narrowbodies flying in Asia-Pacific today will still be flying in a decade, Stewart said.
SOURCE: Air Transport World
SOURCE: Air Transport World
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